traumayellow

Forecast

Historical accuracy

Data access

Morning briefing Fetching live data…

Connecting to Open-Meteo, CDC NSSP, and NWSS…

AQI · Louisville

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fetching…

Ozone · µg/m³

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3–5d lag

Flu A · KY ED %

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CDC NSSP

Active flags

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calculating…

5-day weather forecast · LouisvilleOpen-Meteo · live

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Environmental · live

Open-Meteoopen-meteo.com ↗

Air Quality Index

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PM 2.5

particulate · 1–3 day lag

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Ozone (peak today)

3–5 day respiratory ED lag

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Temperature

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Precipitation

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Respiratory ED visits · KYCDC NSSP · live

Week ending — · % of all KY ED visits

Influenza A/B

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COVID-19

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RSV

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vs prior week

NSSP: statewide KY ED presentations. Currently empty in signals.csv — collect script needs verification.

Wastewater · Jefferson Co

CDC NWSS · —d lagdata.cdc.gov ↗

Composite percentile

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Sites reporting

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Sample date

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⚠ CDC NWSS has a — processing lag. nwss_percentile column is currently empty in signals.csv — collect script needs verification before this feed is active.

Louisville events · 14 daysNamed calendar

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Ticketmaster: free key at developer.ticketmaster.com

LMPD crime signal · Jefferson Co

LOJIC · loadingLOJIC ↗

Violent · 7d avg ↗

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per day

vs baseline

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30d baseline

Catchment violent

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zip codes

Daily violent crime · last 14 days (ending —)

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within baseline

1σ elevated

2σ elevated

10-day reporting lag. Used for model training and trend analysis — not a same-day operational signal. Violent crime elevation correlates with trauma activation demand 1–3 days later.

ROW construction · catchment LOJIC · loading

Active permits today

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Road closures

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Near hospital corridors

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Why this mattersEMS context

Loading permit data…

EMS access · live traffic

Google Maps · loadingmaps.google.com ↗

Avg EMS access · now

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from catchment zones

vs baseline

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traffic impact

Worst zone

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max access time

All sites · avg EMS access time now

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Catchment access map · color = drive time to hospital

Refreshes every 15 minutes · Google Maps Distance Matrix

Suggested action: Generating from live data…

Data sources · this session

Connecting…

14d

30d

60d

90d

predicted

actual

30 days

Mean abs. error

4.2

visits / day

Within-range days

87%

actual in band

Surge days caught

11/12

flagged before shift

Missed surges

unflagged high-volume

Predicted vs actual visit volume

predicted range

predicted

actual

Accuracy by condition type

Condition	MAE	Within range
Baseline (no flags)	2.5	96%
Ozone flag days	1.6	100%
Event days	2.0	100%
Multi-flag days	2.1	100%
Flu / wastewater	—	feed not yet active

Notable misses · all time

Mar 29

Predicted 67–83 · actual 56

No active flags

-19

Apr 4

Predicted 70–86 · actual 60

No active flags

-18

Apr 3

Predicted 69–85 · actual 60

No active flags

-17

Mar 22

Predicted 57–73 · actual 50

No active flags

-15

Mar 31

Predicted 66–82 · actual 60

No active flags

-14

Feb 20

Predicted 67–83 · actual 63

No active flags

-12

Mar 21

Predicted 58–74 · actual 54

No active flags

-12

Aug 27

Predicted 60–76 · actual 57

No active flags

-11

Morning email briefing · preview

Updated · NSSP + ice/heat

traumayellow · Jewish Downtown · loading…

05:28

traumayellow

see the surge before it arrives

Jewish Hospital Downtown

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Today's forecast

62–71 visits expected · est. 13 admissions

+8% above 30-day average

Thu · today

62–71

~13 admits

Fri

68–79

~15 admits

Sat

71–85

~17 admits

Elevated conditions

Loading live signal data…

Respiratory surveillance · Kentucky

Flu A/B

—%

COVID-19

—%

RSV

—%

CDC NSSP · % of all KY ED visits · week ending —

Wastewater (NWSS): Jefferson Co composite at — · — lag — NSSP ED data above provides current substitute.

Suggested action

Generating from live data…

AQI

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Ozone

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Flu A

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Precip

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traumayellow.com · full dashboard & historical accuracy
Model: XGBoost · Last retrain: 16 Mar · Cerner data through 17 Mar

Sent 05:28 daily
manage preferences

Live sources

—

pulling data now

Pending / partial

connected, gaps remain

Not yet connected

identified, not initiated

Live · pulling now

Active

Pending or partial

Data gaps exist

Cerner ED data · Jewish Downtown

Manual export · ED Activity Log CSV

Manual — not automated

Training data covers Jul 2024 – Mar 2026 (Jewish Downtown only). Export is manual — pulled from Cerner and committed to the repo. Boarding and external transfer rows not yet included; full 18-month ED Activity Log not yet pulled. Automating this feed is the single highest-leverage remaining task.

CDC NSSP · Kentucky ED flu %

CDC open API · no key required

Column empty in current export

nssp_flu_pct and nssp_covid_pct are present in the feature schema but currently empty in signals.csv — the collect script needs to be verified and re-run to populate historical values. No agreement needed; this is a free CDC feed.

CDC NWSS · wastewater surveillance

CDC open API · no key required

Column empty in current export

nwss_percentile is in the feature schema but empty in signals.csv. Same issue as NSSP — collect script needs verification. National wastewater percentile provides a leading indicator for respiratory surge that typically precedes ED volume by 7–10 days.

Not yet connected

No agreements initiated

Cerner ED data · additional sites

UofL Hospital · Mary & Elizabeth · South Hospital

Not initiated

Expanding to other UofL Health sites requires a separate data access conversation per site. Jewish Downtown is the only site currently in the model.

MetroSafe 911 call volume

Louisville Metro · Office of Performance Improvement & Innovation

Not initiated

Aggregate call counts by type (MVA, assault, fall, cardiac) — no patient identifiers needed. Would add a same-day leading indicator for trauma and acute volume. Entry point: Metro OPI&I or existing EMS relationship.

Kentucky Trauma Registry

KIPRC · University of Kentucky · research DUA required

Not initiated

Daily activation counts and mechanism distribution — aggregate only, no patient identifiers. Route through Huecker given existing KIPRC relationship.

OR surgical schedule · elective cases

Surgical services · separate data steward from ED

Not initiated

Aggregate daily elective case count and service line — no patient identifiers. Useful for modeling post-surgical bed pressure and its effect on ED boarding and throughput.