traumayellow

Forecast

Historical accuracy

Data access

Morning briefing Fetching live data…

Connecting to Open-Meteo, CDC NSSP, and NWSS…

AQI · Louisville

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fetching…

Ozone · µg/m³

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3–5d lag

Flu A · KY ED %

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CDC NSSP

Active flags

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calculating…

5-day weather forecast · LouisvilleOpen-Meteo · live

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Environmental · live

Open-Meteoopen-meteo.com ↗

Air Quality Index

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PM 2.5

particulate · 1–3 day lag

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Ozone (peak today)

3–5 day respiratory ED lag

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Temperature

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Precipitation

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Respiratory ED visits · KYCDC NSSP · live

Week ending — · % of all KY ED visits

Influenza A/B

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COVID-19

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RSV

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vs prior week

NSSP: statewide KY ED presentations. Wastewater (KYWSS) adds 2–4wk lead time — pending setup.

Wastewater · Jefferson Co

CDC NWSS · —d lagdata.cdc.gov ↗

Composite percentile

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Sites reporting

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Sample date

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⚠ CDC NWSS has a — processing lag. NSSP respiratory data above provides a current substitute until KYWSS direct access is configured.

Louisville events · 14 daysNamed calendar

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Ticketmaster: free key at developer.ticketmaster.com

LMPD crime signal · Jefferson Co

LOJIC · loadingLOJIC ↗

Violent · 7d avg ↗

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per day

vs baseline

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30d baseline

Catchment violent

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zip codes

Daily violent crime · last 14 days (ending —)

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within baseline

1σ elevated

2σ elevated

10-day reporting lag. Used for model training and trend analysis — not a same-day operational signal. Violent crime elevation correlates with trauma activation demand 1–3 days later.

ROW construction · catchment LOJIC · loading

Active permits today

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Road closures

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Near hospital corridors

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Why this mattersEMS context

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EMS access · live traffic

Google Maps · loadingmaps.google.com ↗

Avg EMS access · now

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from catchment zones

vs baseline

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traffic impact

Worst zone

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max access time

All sites · avg EMS access time now

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Catchment access map · color = drive time to hospital

Refreshes every 15 minutes · Google Maps Distance Matrix

Suggested action: Generating from live data…

Surgical schedule integration · Phase 2

Combined ED + surgical bed demand view pending OR data sharing agreement. Projected Phase 2 go-live: Q3 2026.

Data sources · this session

Connecting…

14d

30d

60d

90d

predicted

actual

30 days

Mean abs. error

4.2

visits / day

Within-range days

87%

actual in band

Surge days caught

11/12

flagged before shift

Missed surges

unflagged high-volume

Predicted vs actual visit volume

predicted range

predicted

actual

Accuracy by condition type

Condition	MAE	Within range
Baseline (no flags)	3.1	93%
Ozone flag days	5.4	82%
Event days	6.1	78%
Flu A elevated	4.8	85%
Multi-flag days	7.9	71%

Notable misses · last 30 days

Mar 8

Predicted 58–67 · actual 81

Unscheduled JCPS event not in Ticketmaster.

+14

Mar 2

Predicted 64–74 · actual 58

Post-ice storm. Weather closures not modeled.

−6

Feb 22

Predicted 61–70 · actual 77

RSV surge — wastewater lag exceeded window.

Feb 14

Predicted 55–64 · actual 49

Valentine's Day suppression. Adding as var.

−6

Morning email briefing · preview

Updated · NSSP + ice/heat

traumayellow · Jewish Downtown · loading…

05:28

traumayellow

see the surge before it arrives

Jewish Hospital Downtown

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Today's forecast

62–71 visits expected · est. 13 admissions

+8% above 30-day average

Thu · today

62–71

~13 admits

Fri

68–79

~15 admits

Sat

71–85

~17 admits

Elevated conditions

Loading live signal data…

Respiratory surveillance · Kentucky

Flu A/B

—%

COVID-19

—%

RSV

—%

CDC NSSP · % of all KY ED visits · week ending —

Wastewater (NWSS): Jefferson Co composite at — · — lag — NSSP ED data above provides current substitute.

Suggested action

Generating from live data…

AQI

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Ozone

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Flu A

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Precip

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traumayellow.com · full dashboard & historical accuracy
Model: XGBoost · Last retrain: 16 Mar · Cerner data through 17 Mar

Sent 05:28 daily
manage preferences

Live sources

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no agreement needed

In progress

agreements underway

Agreement needed

not yet initiated

Phase 2 open data

free, not yet wired

Phase 1 · live

Active

Phase 1 · in progress

2 agreements underway

Cerner ED data export · all sites

Internal · ED operations data steward per site

2 of 4 sites connected

✓ Jewish Downtown · data flowing

✓ UofL Hospital · data flowing

⏳ Mary & Elizabeth · IT approval pending

○ South Hospital · not initiated

Next step: M&E IT ticket submitted 12 Mar — follow up if no response by Mar 22. South Hospital conversation to initiate in parallel.

OR surgical schedule · elective cases

Surgical services leadership · separate data steward from ED

Conversation initiated

Mar 11 meeting: OR Director supportive. Data governance review in progress — needs CMO sign-off. Aggregate daily case count + service line only; no patient identifiers required. Target Phase 2 go-live Q3 2026.
Next step: Follow up Mar 25.

Phase 2 · agreement needed

3 not yet initiated

MetroSafe 911 call volume

Louisville Metro · Office of Performance Improvement & Innovation

Not initiated

Aggregate call counts by type (MVA, assault, fall, cardiac) and zip code — no patient identifiers. Entry point: Metro OPI&I or via existing EMS relationship. Frame as public health infrastructure project. Est. 6–10 weeks from first contact to data flowing.

Kentucky Trauma Registry · aggregate data

KIPRC · University of Kentucky · research DUA required

Not initiated

Daily activation counts + mechanism distribution — no patient identifiers. Route through Huecker given existing KIPRC relationship. Aggregate counts may qualify for expedited DUA review. Also enables a separate trauma-specific publication (J Trauma Acute Care Surg).

KSP crash reports · Jefferson County

Kentucky Transportation Cabinet · collision data portal

Lower priority

Connect LMPD public data first (already available at data.louisvilleky.gov — zero agreement needed) and assess whether KSP adds enough to justify the 4–8 week KYTC request process.

Phase 2 · open data · not yet connected

1 live · 1 remaining

LMPD crime incident data

✓ Live · LOJIC ArcGIS

services1.arcgis.com/79kfd2K6fskCAkyg · no key · no agreement

10,820 incidents Jan–Mar 2026. Violent crime baseline: 26.9/day (±6.9). Catchment-area violent: ~18/day. 10-day reporting lag — used for model training and trend analysis. Wired into dashboard trauma panel.

CDC NWSS · national wastewater

CDC open API · no key required

National wastewater trends — useful as regional context when KYWSS has reporting gaps. Already partially connected (general signal); pathogen-specific breakdown pending KYWSS direct access.

ROW construction permits

✓ Live · LOJIC ArcGIS

LOJIC · no key · no agreement · real-time

255 active city-wide permits today, 182 in catchment. 15 full road closures including S Preston St, S Hancock St, E Oak St — primary EMS approach routes to Jewish Hospital Downtown. Signals EMS response time impact and MVA risk elevation from traffic diversion.